South Africa’s new vehicle market continued its upward trajectory in October 2025, supported by easing inflation, a firmer rand, continued signs of improving consumer sentiment, and demand recovery in key export markets. Aggregate domestic new vehicle sales rose to 55,956 units in October 2025, the highest monthly total since March 2015, increasing by 7,734 units, or 16,0% compared to the 48,222 units recorded in October 2024, demonstrating sustained momentum into the final quarter of the year. For the year to date the new vehicle market was now 15,7% ahead of the same period 2024.
Of the total industry sales of 55,956 vehicles, an estimated 44,278 units, or 79,1% represented dealer sales, 16,6% went to the vehicle rental industry, 2,2% to government, and 2,1% to industry corporate fleets.
The new passenger car market recorded 39,610 units, its highest monthly total since October 2014, an increase of 5,107 units, or 14,8%, compared to the 34,503 units sold in October 2024. Car rental sales continued to underpin volumes ahead of the peak travel season, accounting for a substantial 21,7% of passenger car sales during the month. Domestic sales of light commercial vehicles, bakkies and mini-buses at 13,361 units recorded an increase of 2,579 units, or 23,9%, from the 10,782 units sold in October 2024.
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales reflected a mixed performance, with medium commercial vehicles registering 809 units, up by 69 units, or 9,3% from the 740 units in October 2024, while heavy trucks and buses decreased to 2,176 units, down by 21 vehicles, or 1,0% from the 2,197 units in the corresponding month last year.
South Africa’s macroeconomic backdrop continued to show encouraging signs. Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% in September, supported by ongoing food disinflation and a firmer currency environment, improving real income dynamics for households. Fuel costs remained relatively contained, while competitive pricing and softer vehicle inflation continued to support affordability in select segments amid heightened competition in the passenger market. This softening inflation trajectory supports real disposable income gains, aligning with forecasts that headline CPI will average 3.3% in 2025.
At the same time, the rand remained relatively resilient despite recent volatility driven by commodity price movements and global geopolitical dynamics. A more stable currency environment has helped ease imported vehicle price pressures reflected in the YTD market share increase of new light vehicle sales, of which the majority is imported.
Despite inflation trending towards the lower end of the target band, the South African Reserve Bank maintained its policy stance at 7.0% in September, keeping borrowing conditions restrictive. However, with inflation expectations easing and a credible path toward further disinflation, financial markets continue to price in interest rate reductions in early 2026, which bodes positively for bigticket consumer spending and fleet renewal cycles.
Consumer sentiment remains mixed, reflecting persistent unemployment and pressure on middleincome households, yet the durable goods purchasing index has continued to edge higher – signalling pockets of confidence and willingness to invest in major goods where financing remains accessible.
Internationally, a supportive external environment and recovering demand contributed to the export performance. Vehicle exports increased to 32,659 units in October 2025, up 178 units, or 0,5%, compared to 32,481 units exported in October 2024. For the year-to-date, export volumes remain 6,7% ahead of 2024 levels, reinforcing the sector’s resilience amid global supply chain shifts and evolving trade conditions.
